Why is the help of the “Baltic hawks” so important for Ukraine?

During the Vilnius summit of the Three Seas Initiative (3SI), Ukraine and Latvia signed an agreement on cooperation in the field of security. One provision of the document makes it special: Riga will provide Kyiv with military assistance worth 0.25% (!) of Gross domestic product (GDP) over the next three years.

It is extremely important for our country to fix this obligation in bilateral documents. Western countries allocating part of their Gross domestic product (GDP) to Ukraine is a solution to the issue of sustainable financing for our country in the face of problems with the allocation of funds by the United States of America and the prospect of Donald Trump coming to power. Therefore, in the case of Latvia, what is important for us is not so much the amount (given the size of its Gross domestic product (GDP) - according to data for 2023, it is $40.3 billion, 0.25% looks like small money), but the fact of the initiative and the symbolism of the figure.

Earlier, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas proposed that EU countries allocate 0.25% of their Gross domestic product (GDP) to help Ukraine, which will allow our country to defeat Russia. As the former Prime Minister of Lithuania and now Member of the Parliament of the European Union (EU) Andrius Kubilius noted in an interview with Radio Liberty, last year the Russian Federation spent about 7% of Gross domestic product (GDP) on the war, and the West spent 0.1% of Gross domestic product (GDP) on helping Ukraine.

“I looked at how much money Russia spent on the war last year: it was approximately 100 billion euros. The Americans say even more – 110 billion: this is about 7% of Gross domestic product (GDP). Everything has been calculated, even how much money Ukraine itself invested in its defense last year – 40 billion euros (this is 25% of Gross domestic product (GDP). And what did Western countries give? In total, we were given another 40 billion. That is, the Ukrainian side had 80 billion. This means that this entire amount of assistance so far allows Ukraine not to lose. But this sum does not allow Ukraine to win,” said Andrius Kubilius.

According to ZN.UA, the security cooperation agreements that Ukraine is going to sign with Lithuania and Estonia also contain a formula for annual military assistance of 0.25% of Gross domestic product (GDP). As Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna noted, if other Western countries accept the same commitment, it will allow Ukraine to count on 120 billion euros of military support per year. But Gross domestic product (GDP) of the United States of America and the European Union (EU) is 25 times greater than that of Russia.

Estonia has already provided our country with military assistance amounting to almost 524 million euros, which is 1.4% of this country's Gross domestic product (GDP). In general, although the Baltic countries are among the smallest in terms of economic size among the European Union (EU) and members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), they provided the greatest assistance to Ukraine in relation to Gross domestic product (GDP): Latvia - about 0.9% of its GDP, Lithuania – approximately 1%. But the United States of America, although it provided assistance to Ukraine in the amount of $44 billion, spent only 0.2% of its Gross domestic product (GDP) on this.

Well, the doubts and fears so widespread among members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) do not apply to Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia: the Baltic states are doing everything to ensure that Ukraine wins the war against Russia. It is not surprising that in Europe and Russia Riga, Vilnius and Tallinn have a strong image of hawks.

The Baltic states were among the first to recognize the Russian Federation as a country supporting terrorism, and its actions against Ukraine as genocide. They defend the Ukrainian Peace Formula, lobby for the transfer of frozen Russian assets to Kyiv, give shelter to Ukrainian refugees, rehabilitate wounded soldiers and do not block Ukrainian exports. Vilnius, Riga, Tallinn provide us with weapons and ammunition and conduct training for Ukrainian fighters. So, they strive to create conditions for the defeat of the Russian Federation, which will allow Kyiv to negotiate with Moscow on favorable terms.

Believing that “the free world must unwaveringly support Ukraine,” the Baltic states are committed to long-term military and financial assistance. At the same time, Riga, Vilnius and Tallinn are Kyiv’s most consistent partners not only in countering Russian aggression, but also in the issue of Ukraine’s membership in the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO): the Baltic states actively insist that, if our country is not accepted at the Alliance’s Washington summit will be invited, then they should at least announce the beginning of the process of accession negotiations.

By helping Ukraine, the Baltic countries took almost everything from their arsenals.

In March, the Estonian government approved the 18th package of military assistance to Ukraine in the amount of 21.8 million euros. It included 155 mm caliber shells, anti-tank mines, small arms, etc. Having provided Kyiv with 18 military aid packages, Tallinn is planning to approve a new one in the near future. And as Estonian President Alar Karis previously announced, his country will provide assistance to Ukraine in the amount of 1.2 billion euros by 2027. Estonia has already transferred all of its 122 mm and 155 mm howitzers to us.

Latvia gave Ukraine all its helicopters. Riga is giving us howitzers, artillery ammunition, anti-tank weapons, and anti-aircraft systems. Latvia provides us with unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). And not just those purchased with public donations. On April 16, the Latvian government approved the decision to send to Ukraine the first batch of drones purchased at state expense as part of the “drone coalition.” In addition, Latvia is donating confiscated cars, which are so necessary for our soldiers at the front.

In turn, Lithuania supplies Ukraine with artillery ammunition, anti-drone guns, helicopters, armored personnel carriers, guns, and other military equipment and weapons. Interior Minister of the Republic of Lithuania Agnė Bilotaitė said that Lithuania plans to allocate 1.2 billion euros this year to the European Union (EU) support fund for Ukraine for the purchase of ammunition and military equipment. This amount of money is considerable for Lithuania, given that the country’s budget for 2024 assumes that its revenue portion will be 16.98 billion euros.

The assistance of the Baltic states is not limited to weapons and ammunition.

Lithuanian Energy Minister Dainius Kreivys said that his country will assist Ukraine in restoring its energy infrastructure by transferring equipment from the now non-operating Vilnius Thermal Power Plant, as well as some equipment from the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant and warehouses of energy companies. In February, Estonia signed an agreement with the United States of America, which provides for the transfer of almost 500 thousand euros for the restoration of Ukraine's energy infrastructure using confiscated proceeds of crime.

To achieve Russia's defeat, the Baltic states are investing in their security: since 2014, these countries are well aware of the threats posed by the Kremlin, and are well aware that after Ukraine they could become the next victim of a Russian attack. After all, Putin has set the goal of restoring the Russian Empire and reshaping the international order.

Putin’s self-confidence is growing against the backdrop of European doubts about the Americans’ application of Article 5 of the Washington Treaty, political disagreements in the United States of America and the European Union (EU) over support for Ukraine, calls for negotiations with the Russian Federation and also thoughts about freezing the conflict. The prospect of Trump's re-election to the White House, the threat of the United States of America leaving the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the military and political unpreparedness of the West for a long armed confrontation in a modern war only further strengthen the confidence of political leaders in the Kremlin in their actions.

In Kyiv, it is believed that the military campaign against the Baltic countries could begin as early as 2025, and for an invasion it is not necessary to freeze the war with Ukraine: Putin can start a war on several fronts simultaneously. In any case, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius called on Europe to prepare for war, comparing the Russian Federation's invasion of Ukraine with Hitler's annexation of Czechoslovakia in 1938. At the same time, there is a possibility that the Kremlin may view an attack on the Baltic countries as an element of pressure on the West in order to keep Ukraine within the Russian sphere of influence.

The example of the Baltic countries shows that to be on the right side of history it is not necessary to have a huge territory, a large economy and a large army. It is enough for politicians and citizens to know their history well, to distinguish good from evil, and also to have the determination to make and approve, if not popular, but necessary decisions.