“We will use overwhelming lethal force.” That’s how US President Donald Trump described a campaign of airstrikes he launched Saturday in Yemen against the Houthis. The Iran-backed militia has been disrupting international shipping in the Red Sea since October 2023, and has continued to operate despite previous rounds of US and allied airstrikes. How exactly is the second Trump administration executing its largest military campaign yet? What will the impact be on the region? And what does this signal about Trump’s approach to Iran? Our experts responded in force with the answers.
Click to jump to an expert analysis:
Daniel E. Mouton: The US will now need to ramp up diplomacy and other resources
Emily Milliken: Expect Houthi retaliation against US targets in the region
Danny Citrinowicz: An important change in strategy for coping with the Houthis
Alex Plitsas: Saturday’s airstrikes are probably the first of many
Andrew Borene: A more comprehensive allied approach will be needed
Thomas S. Warrick: A few days of strikes alone will not end Houthi attacks
The US will now need to ramp up diplomacy and other resources
Between March 2015 and March 2022, the Saudi-led coalition conducted between 25,054 and 75,135 airstrike sorties against Yemen’s Houthi movement. The Saudi-led coalition operated modern US and European aircraft, launched precision guided munitions, and received indirect US military support. Seven years of airstrikes across the breadth of Houthi-controlled territory failed to inhibit the Houthis’ ability to conduct counter-strikes against Saudi Arabia’s energy, aviation, and other civil infrastructure. In the face of the massive amount of ordnance the Saudi-led coalition dropped on Yemen and the amount of Saudi air-defense missiles fired at Houthi drones and missiles, the Houthis’ demonstrated their ability to increase their attacks over time.
Importantly, large-scale Houthi attacks against Saudi Arabia and corresponding coalition airstrikes ended with a truce in March 2022. Although a formal cease-fire remains unfulfilled, the Saudis, at least, have no desire to see a resumption of hostilities as the Houthis could just as easily target Saudi Arabia’s NEOM project or energy infrastructure. This explains why Saudi Arabia called for restraint when the United States and United Kingdom began airstrikes against the Houthis in 2024. Despite multiple rounds of strikes in Yemen, the Houthis demonstrated the same level of resilience that they demonstrated against the Saudi-led coalition.
Moving to the most recent round of strikes against the Houthis, Trump’s statement, if followed through, gives us a clear indication of the US direction in the Middle East. Trump wrote that he “ordered the United States Military to launch decisive and powerful Military action against the Houthi terrorists in Yemen,” and concluded with the threat that if Houthi attacks don’t stop, “HELL WILL RAIN DOWN UPON YOU LIKE NOTHING YOU HAVE EVER SEEN BEFORE!”
Given the long history of Houthi resistance, first against the central Yemen government that they overthrew and later against the Saudi-led coalition, the current round of airstrikes are unlikely to deter the Houthis. Given that the Houthis receive support not only from Iran, but also from procurement networks in China and Russia, the United States will need to employ more resources than Saturday’s airstrikes.
These additional resources will include diplomatic engagement with Russia and China, additional maritime resources to interdict resupply to the Houthis, and effective pressure on Iran. These resources do not include the potential need to increase the defenses of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, both of which the Houthis have targeted in the past. These resources will be considerable in terms of military assets and international coordination. Signs of the seriousness of US intentions to do more than in the past will be clear in the coming days and weeks. This level of commitment, more than Saturday’s strikes, will be what sends a message of US seriousness to Iran and the region.
—Daniel E. Mouton is a nonresident senior fellow at the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative of the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs. He served on the National Security Council from 2021 to 2023 as the director for defense and political-military policy for the Middle East and North Africa for Coordinator Brett McGurk.
Expect Houthi retaliation against US targets in the region
The latest US strikes targeted Houthi strongholds that are known locations for Houthi leadership and infrastructure. These operations align closely with previous statements by Trump and members of his administration that the United States needs to take a tougher stance against the rebel group.
While strikes targeting the Houthis’ bases, leaders, and missile defenses may impact their ability to operate in the short term, the Houthis have proven resilient in the past and were able to still pose a regional threat after successive strikes by the Saudi-led coalition and more recently the United States and United Kingdom. Looking ahead, the group will likely launch a retaliatory strike, potentially on the USS Truman strike group in the Red Sea or US bases in the region, in an attempt to demonstrate to Yemenis living under their control, their backers in Tehran, and the wider international community that they remain undeterred by US operations.
The rebels may also continue ground operations in Marib, the last remaining Yemeni government stronghold and a key hub for oil and gas resources, or launch attacks on key Saudi infrastructure, in an attempt to force the government in Riyadh into a vulnerable position ahead of potential peace negotiations.
—Emily Milliken is the associate director of media and communications for the N7 Initiative at the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs.
An important change in strategy for coping with the Houthis
The attacks conducted in Yemen by US Central Command, which mark the beginning of a targeted campaign against the Houthis, constitute an important change in the US policy toward the Yemeni terrorist organization.
The US military has taken the initiative and begun targeted operations against the Houthi leadership and weapons production sites in Yemen.
These attacks highlight the US administration’s view regarding the need to prevent the Houthis from disrupting the freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and are an important signal to US friends in the region about Washington’s willingness to seriously confront the Houthis.
In order for the campaign to be effective, it must be continuous and ongoing while damaging the Houthis’ command and control sites and their ability to produce and launch missiles and drones. The campaign also must block Iran’s ability to support the Houthis’ power-building (via the Arabian Sea and Oman) while relying on Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which are well acquainted with the Yemeni arena.
Looking ahead, this campaign must also lead to the overthrow of the Houthi regime, a step that will seriously harm Iran’s presence in this strategic region and its ability to threaten Saudi Arabia.
Given the existing high tensions, these attacks—especially if the United States suspects that Iran is continuing to assist the Houthis—also bring Tehran and Washington closer to confrontation.
—Danny Citrinowicz is a nonresident fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs and a member of the Atlantic Council’s Iran Strategy Project working group.
The bombings risk prolonging Yemenis’ suffering—which the Houthis can exploit to rally support
The US bombing on Saturday in Sana’a and elsewhere in Yemen marks another escalation of the war with the Houthis. Purportedly aimed at weakening the group’s military, the attack is a direct response to persistent Houthi assaults on Red Sea shipping and broader regional aggression and threats. The difference between these attacks and those in the past is that Saturday’s attacks are meant to directly target Houthi leadership.
Although the attacks themselves may not show results at the moment, they deliver a strong deterrence message from the United States to Houthi leadership. However, the Houthis are likely to show resistance, meaning the US policy of deterrence will take time to show its effectiveness.
While the attacks also focus on military installations and equipment, draining Houthi resources, the group has consistently demonstrated the ability to adapt and recover.
Beyond their direct impact on the Houthis, these airstrikes deeply affect civilians, as Houthi-controlled territory represents more than 60 percent of Yemen’s population. This instills fear and increases resentment toward the United States from citizens who do not support the Houthis. Large-scale destruction and civilian casualties are bound to provoke outrage, which the Houthis can exploit to rally more support. Without a comprehensive approach that disrupts weapons and parts smuggling from Iran, and addresses the political and economic drivers empowering the Houthis, this week’s bombings risk prolonging the suffering of Yemenis.
—Osamah Al Rawhani is a nonresident senior fellow with the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs and the executive director for policy and partnerships at the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies.
Saturday’s airstrikes are probably the first of many
Since late 2023, the United States, alongside coalition partners, has conducted repeated strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen, aiming to curb the Iran-backed group’s escalating aggression. The Houthis’ attacks on Red Sea shipping have inflicted significant economic damage, disrupting international trade routes and slashing traffic on the Suez Canal, a critical artery for global commerce. Their campaign, which they tie to solidarity with Palestinians amid the Israel-Hamas war, has forced shipping firms to reroute, leading to spiking costs and delays.
Beyond merchant vessels, the Houthis have launched unprecedented drone and missile assaults on US naval ships, alongside ballistic missile and drone strikes targeting Israel. Despite over a year of US-led airstrikes, these efforts have failed to deter the Houthis, who have exploited the conflict to bolster their domestic and regional legitimacy. In early 2025, they threatened to resume Red Sea ship attacks, underscoring their resilience.
The Houthis’ ability to persist stems from their dispersal of weapons across Yemen’s rugged terrain, complicating targeting efforts. A lack of actionable intelligence has further hampered coalition strikes, despite extensive collection efforts spanning months. The group’s adaptability—hiding assets and leveraging Iran’s support—has rendered suppression elusive.
The extensive US airstrikes carried out Saturday were likely driven by months of painstaking intelligence work and are likely the first of many if they are to be successful in achieving the goal of stopping attacks on international shipping and US interests in the region.
—Alex Plitsas is a nonresident senior fellow with the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, the head of the Atlantic Council’s Counterterrorism Project, and a former chief of sensitive activities for special operations and combating terrorism in the Office of the Secretary of Defense.
A more comprehensive allied approach will be needed
Counterterrorism can be a powerful unifying force. In a time of challenges to some military alliances elsewhere, this may be one area where the United States, European powers, Israel’s allies, and a Saudi-led Arab coalition can all agree on needed action. Each shares motivations to combat the terrorist group and begin degrading Iran’s decades-long role as the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism.
History suggests that without a more comprehensive allied approach to the Houthi-Iran connection, airstrikes alone won’t be enough to push the Houthis out of Yemen or restore stability to one of the world’s most vital trade routes. Understanding the history behind these tensions is key to making sense of the present and what might come next.
The Houthis, an armed political and religious movement, have controlled large parts of western Yemen since 2015 and—despite years of airstrikes and some ground offensives led by Saudi Arabia, augmented by targeted US and UK strikes in response to last year’s attacks on commercial shipping—the Houthis remain entrenched. Airstrikes alone have not been enough to dislodge them, as they’ve adapted with asymmetric tactics, fortified defenses, and, most critically, sustained support from Iran.
That Iranian backing is central to their operations. The Houthis have positioned themselves within Iran’s “Axis of Resistance,” alongside Hezbollah, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Without direct Iranian arms, training, and intelligence, their battlefield resilience and ability to target commercial shipping with precision would not be possible.
The first Trump administration already demonstrated a willingness to aggressively confront Iran’s most direct proxies and even Iranian top military leadership. That precedent may be relevant now as the United States responds again to Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping that have disrupted a sea route critical to 15 percent of global trade, forcing major companies to at times abandon the waterway and reroute around Africa, driving up costs and causing economic ripple effects worldwide.
—Andrew Borene is a member of the Atlantic Council’s Counterterrorism Project and a former senior official in the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence.
A few days of strikes alone will not end Houthi attacks
Most Americans have learned not to think of the Trump administration as patient, but the Houthis got a very pointed lesson this week of Trump’s impatience. Virtually every outside observer had concluded long ago that the Biden administration’s limited strikes since the Houthis started attacking international shipping in the Red Sea were not deterring the Houthis from continuing to strike when it suited them.
Now, the Trump administration has decided to ramp up the attacks to see if a more painful demonstration will stop the attacks. The biggest risk for both the United States and the Houthis is that no amount of destruction short of targeting both the Houthi leadership and its military capabilities may actually achieve what the Trump administration wants. A few days of strikes will probably not bring about an end to the Houthis’ attacks—unless the Trump administration is prepared to go even further.
—Thomas S. Warrick is a nonresident senior fellow in the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative and a former deputy assistant secretary for counterterrorism policy in the US Department of Homeland Security.
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Image: Armed Hotuhis carry guns during a pro Palestine protest in Sana'a on March 11, 2025. Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, the leader of Yemen's Houthi movement, has issued a warning that his group will resume naval assaults on Israel unless the blockade preventing aid from reaching the Gaza Strip is lifted. March 11 marks the final day of the deadline set by al-Houthi for Israel to permit the entry of humanitarian assistance. Osamah Yahya/dpa via Reuters Connect